Replacing Intuition with Mathematics

A quotation attributed to Albert Einstein is “the only really valuable thing is intuition”

As an IT project manager, one of my key goals is to determine how long a project or programme will take. The problems faced when estimating timescales relate to the areas which are difficult to quantify, for example, unfamiliar company culture, unfamiliar business function, managing a new or unknown project team, etc.

A real skill of project management is identifying, estimating impact and making provision for these important, but difficult to quantify variables. Like all senior project managers, I depend on my expert knowledge, experience and intuition when making assessments.

A few months ago, I attended a fascinating lecture at the LSE entitled “Super Crunchers” given by Yale Professor, Ian Ayres. Professor Ayres in his lecture and in his book of the same title, gave a number of excellent examples of how using even crude mathematical models and working with available data sets that computer generated predictions are often far superior to those of acknowledged experts.

He gave widely diverse examples of the success of mathematics over established experts - from predicting US Supreme Court rulings using a relatively crude mathematical model; to predicting the quality of a Burgundy or Bordeaux vintage using a small number of available environmental criteria; to how much a new movie will take at the box office and what changes have to be made to increase box office earnings.

In the world of IT, it seems that almost everyone believes they are experts and have excellent intuitive and judgement skills. The over optimism of my IT colleagues and the resulting consequences are something that I have to deal with professionally on a daily basis. The reality is, most people are poor at assessing risk and are even worse at estimating how long a piece of work will take, particularly if they are involved in this work.

Most of us conveniently forget our failures very quickly or just cover them up. Perhaps it’s the best approach and a very good survival technique both psychologically and professionally. However, as an IT Project/Programme Manager, the over optimism of others is something I have to successfully assess and manage as it can have serious economic consequences for both project and client.

Professor Ayers’ lecture caused me to revisit a number of techniques learned in the past including Statistical Analysis and Judgement and Decision Analysis techniques. The problems with these techniques are: firstly, they were time consuming; secondly, there is a tendency to get bogged down in the minutiae and finally, often the end results are not defendable against common sense analysis and project experience.

A simple approach was required that could be used and easily refined after the Critical Path of the project had been specified. I selected a small number of key variables and applied a simple weighting to each. The criteria selected included:

• Business Function – Marketing, HR, Finance, Customer Services, etc.
• Technical Component – Web Dev, Software Dev, IT Infrastructure, Product Installation, etc.
• Key Skills – Graphical Design, Software Engineering, Data Integration, etc.
• Average Years of Experience of Key Participants Experience – Designers, Web Developers, Software Engineers

The simple formula was then applied with the weighted tasks on the Critical Path. I have applied the technique to a number of past projects and after some adjustments achieved good results. The weakness being that hindsight is always perfect.

I am now applying the weightings and formula to new projects. I expect there will several iterations before I am happy with the results, but I am hoping that we will be able to use the approach to increase the accuracy of estimating project duration for the benefit of clients.

When I am happy with the approach and the results obtained, I will publish further details.

The High Costs of Low Skills & Experience

The value of high quality Project Management to a Project or business is difficult to over-estimate.

On even a well executed Project, it has been estimated that the additional business bonus of employing a highly trained, highly experienced IT Project Manager is a saving of around 30% of the total Project cost with delivery timescales 30% faster. The returns can be even greater.

By identifying the problems early and by good planning, pro-active risk and dependency management, a highly experienced IT Project Manager can make a huge impact not only in terms of delivery timescales, but also to the costs of a Project and therefore the bottom line of a business.

I have become increasingly concerned and frustrated by the falling standards in the art of IT Project Management. I call it an art, because when done well, it is really is a thing of beauty. Unfortunately, to the untrained observer, the skill, knowledge and experience employed are often unappreciated or misunderstood.

The recruitment of IT Project Managers with appropriate technical background and skills does not appear to be priority or very important for many organisations. Project Management also seems to have become the IT career of choice for those with few or no IT skills. This should be of great concern to the IT industry as a whole.

Most businesses can expect, at best, an average performance from their IT Project Teams and Project Managers. Many businesses have been disappointed by IT so often that they don’t seem to really mind how badly Projects are delivered as long as they get something delivered eventually.

I have often observed individual Projects taking 2-5 or even 10 times longer than they should with overall business costs in line with this increase. Why do companies accept this type of performance?

The key Project Management skill now seems to be managing the business’s expectations to regard poor or mediocre performance as acceptable or even as good performance.

I was delighted that Prince 2 and other Methodologies were being adopted. In the past only large companies would train their Project Managers. However, a Methodology is not a passport to successful Project delivery or a ‘magic bullet’ to solve a company’s IT Project problems. It only becomes a powerful tool when backed up with the requisite IT knowledge and experience.

I have witnessed many examples of Project Managers blindly following a Methodology in the hope that the Project will be delivered and failing badly. The larger failures are sometimes reported in the press, but this is the tip of the iceberg.

My great concern is that many IT Project Managers have the Project Management qualifications, but have very limited and often no real knowledge or experience of any of the key functions within IT.

I know a number of people working as IT Project Managers whose total knowledge and experience of IT is switching on their PC. They have achieved Prince 2 Certification (an open book exam) and now are employed for their Project Management expertise. They are now learning on the job at their employer's expense. I wonder if these employers have any idea of the real costs involved.

When interviewing recently for a Project Management position, I was appalled by the lack of any real understanding of what makes IT Projects really work. Candidates hid behind their knowledge of process and jargon and few displayed any real knowledge.

I know I am not alone with my frustrations, but the problem appears to me to be getting worse.